A sudden turn?

Declining support in recent days opens up space for unexpected candidates, while the crucial 89 votes of the two-thirds majority remains a target for each of them to reach.

Pietro Parolin

As the Catholic portal "The Pillar" learns, immediately after the funeral of Pope Francis, the supporters of Cardinal Pietro Parolin were convinced that he would already secure 50 of the necessary 89 votes in the first round of voting, scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

However, after the cardinals had a few days to consider his past role and personal reputation, some of them changed their minds - Pietro Parolin now, according to estimates, can count on the support of around 40 cardinals.

Luis Antonio Tagle

His main opponent, the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, has similar problems, who relied on the increasingly influential block of Asian cardinals, significantly strengthened during the mandate of Pope Francis. Tagle was long considered a young, charismatic preacher and communicator, the successor of Jorge Bergoglio. However, it is one thing to be popular among the faithful, and quite another to be a serious candidate for the pope.

This is precisely why Tagle is now facing serious questions about his ability to lead the Catholic Church, but he should not be written off yet - and he enters the first round with the support of about 40 votes, the same as Parolin.

EPA-EFE/FABIO FRUSTACI

Robert Francis Prevost

In such a situation, an unexpected challenger appeared - American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops.

Prevost, who spent most of his priestly and episcopal ministry in Peru, enjoys increasing support, primarily among cardinals from Latin America. In addition to them, he is supported by certain high church officials from the USA.

However, his candidacy faces serious obstacles. Prevost is an American, and the unwritten rule of Vatican diplomacy is that popes should not come from the most powerful world power - the United States of America, in order to avoid the concentration of both spiritual and secular power.

In addition, Prevost does not currently enjoy sufficient support among European cardinals, which puts him at a disadvantage compared to Tagle and Parolin. However, according to current estimates, he can count on around 30 votes on the first day of the conclave.

Péter Erdő 

The last among the four leading candidates is currently the Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, who enjoys the almost unanimous support of the conservative wing within the College of Cardinals. However, the main problem of his candidacy lies in the fact that that block only has about thirty cardinals, while the others delicately ignore him, so his chances for election remain more theoretical than real - unless there is a sudden turn.

Who will be Pope Francis' successor?

It is becoming increasingly clear that, precisely because of the way in which Pope Francis appointed the cardinals, it is almost impossible to predict with precision who could be his successor.

Out of a total of 133 cardinals with the right to vote in the upcoming conclave, as many as 108 were appointed by Francis himself, and they will decide on the election of the new pope for the first time. Unlike the 2013 conclave, this time cardinals from a number of historically influential archdioceses, such as Sydney, Vienna, Genoa, Paris, Milan, Palermo, Armagh and Krakow, will not participate in the vote.

Quite simply, Francis' election of cardinals from peripheral countries dramatically changed the situation in the College of Cardinals.

At the upcoming conclave, only 52 Europeans will enter the Sistine Chapel, including only 17 Italians.

On the other hand, the number of African cardinals rose to 18, seven more than at the previous conclave – while the number of cardinals from Asia doubled, from ten to twenty.