An Attack on NATO Being Prepared? Urgent Warning in Europe

Kubilius told Sky News today that military assessments suggest Russia could be ready to attack a NATO member within five years.

“Russia could field up to five million drones. We must have greater capacity, if we want to prevail,” said Kubilius, emphasizing that any future attack would likely be led by the Russian army, “hardened on the frontlines” and equipped for large-scale drone warfare.

He described the war in Ukraine as having sparked a revolution in drone use in modern warfare. It is estimated that up to 80% of Russian front-line losses have resulted from Ukrainian drone operations.

Based on his observations from the battlefield, Kubilius highlighted that in the frontline zone known as the "Valley of Death", nothing can move without being detected and destroyed by a drone, and that conventional tanks survive only about six minutes in that area.

Ukraine is projected to produce over four million drones this year, and Kubilius stressed that countries like Lithuania, which shares a 900-kilometer border with Russia and Belarus, would need to produce around three million drones annually in the event of a conflict.

Kubilius emphasized that instead of stockpiling drones, which risk becoming quickly outdated, European nations should invest in scalable industrial capacity, as well as train teams of engineers and drone operators capable of ramping up production during a crisis.

The commissioner warned that NATO countries are not yet adequately prepared to defend against mass drone attacks of the scale experienced daily by Ukraine, urging a rapid increase in investment and innovation in this domain.

According to officials from the Ministry of Defense, Germany has already signed contracts for large-scale drone procurement and is actively testing them with its troops. The focus is on developing a flexible production infrastructure, rather than accumulating drone stockpiles that would soon become obsolete.

In May, the European Union approved a €150 billion investment plan aimed at reinforcing the defense industry and bolstering joint production capabilities in the face of emerging security threats.