That's it: the Russians are starting a new invasion? Army deployed

As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned, while everyone is waiting for another attempt to stop the bloody war that has been raging for more than three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, there is no sign of peace on the battlefield so soon.

Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in the Kursk Oblast and near Borova and Toretsk, while Russian forces have advanced in the Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Novopavlivka, according to the ISW report.

Delaying

ISW continues to assess that Russia is committed to prolonging the peace talks in order to continue to advance on the battlefield.

Peace talks before a ceasefire is in place would allow Russia to continue to advance in Ukraine, which Russia would likely try to use in the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations to force further concessions.

Any future ceasefire will require Russia and Ukraine to engage in separate negotiations to agree on the necessary monitoring mechanisms, and the mixing of ceasefire negotiations with peace settlement negotiations is likely to delay the implementation of the ceasefire, the ISW added.

Russian officials called on Ukraine, according to ISW, to cede the entire regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, and even areas not currently occupied by Russian forces - before agreeing to a ceasefire.

Are the Russians moving towards NATO?

Russia has reportedly already begun to increase its demands, with Western and Ukrainian sources reporting that the Russian delegation has threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy regions - two areas that Russia neither illegally annexed nor claimed during the Istanbul talks.

This tactic suggests that Russia will make additional, more extreme territorial demands during the ceasefire talks if Ukraine agrees to Russia's ceasefire terms.

Russia reportedly continues to expand its military infrastructure along the border with Finland and Estonia, possibly in preparation for future aggression against NATO.

The New York Times reported on May 19 that recent satellite images, confirmed by NATO officials, show that Russia is building bases and military infrastructure near the Finnish and Estonian borders.

The NYT also reported that Russian forces are building and renovating tents, vehicle depots, fighter jet shelters and helicopter bases at Olenya and Alakurtti air bases in Murmansk Oblast, Kamenka Air Base in the Republic of Komi, and Petrozavodsk Air Base in the Republic of Karelia.

A senior NATO official has said that Russia is likely to move troops further north once the war in Ukraine ends, and that he believes its access to the Arctic is crucial to its great power status.

The New York paper, according to ISW, pointed out that Finnish defense officials predict that it will take about five years for Russia to build up its forces to threatening levels after the end of the war in Ukraine, which could triple the number of Russian forces on Finland's border.

It is recalled that the Wall Street Journal had a similar report in April 2025.